This paper investigates which leading indicators signal banking crises in emerging economies by using a multivariate logit model. We find that the stability of banking sectors in emerging economies is at risk in an environment of rapid lending growth, high inflation and rising real interest...

This paper presents an information variable for financial stability consisting of a composite index and its related critical boundaries. It is an extension of a Financial Conditions Index with information on financial institutions. The indicator is bounded, on one side, by the instability...

In this study we disentangle two dimensions of banks' systemic risk: the level of bank tail risk and the linkage between a bank's tail risk and severe shocks in the financial system. We employ a measure of the systemic risk of financial institutions that can be decomposed into two subcomponents...

This paper investigates the network structure of interbank markets, which has proved to be important for financial stability during the crisis. First, we describe and map the interbank network in the Netherlands, an exception in the literature because of its small and open banking environment....

This paper analyses the reforms in the architecture of EMU since the eruption of the euro crisis in 2010. We describe major weaknesses in the original set-up of EMU, such as lack of fiscal discipline, diverging financial cycles and competitiveness positions, and a lack of crisis instruments....

This paper examines how credit risk affects bank lending and the business cycle. We estimate a panel Vector Autoregression model for an unbalanced sample of 12 OECD countries over the past two to three decades, consisting of the output gap, inflation, the short-term interest rate, bank lending,...

The Basel 3 Liquidity Coverage Ratio (LCR) is a micro prudential instrument to strengthen the liquidity position of banks. However if in extreme scenarios the LCR becomes a binding constraint, the interaction of bank behaviour with the regulatory rule can have negative externalities. We simulate...

This paper provides empirical evidence of behavioural responses by banks and their contribution to system-wide liquidity stress. Using firm-specific balance sheet data, we construct aggregate indicators of macro-prudential risk. Measures of size and herding show that balance sheet adjustments...

Macro stress-testing has become an important tool to assess financial stability. This paper describes a tool kit for scenario analysis and macro stress-testing. It is based on a model which maps multivariate scenarios to banks' credit and interest rate risks by deterministic and stochastic...

This paper presents a macro stress-testing model for market and funding liquidity risks of banks, which have been main drivers of the recent financial crisis. The model takes into account the first and second round (feedback) effects of shocks, induced by behavioural reactions of heterogeneous...