The relationship between monetary indicators and inflation is ussually assumed to be linear, implying that looser monetary conditions always signal an increase in in.ation. Recently, money growth in the euro area surged while inflation remained comparatively subdued. This seems at variance with...

Should central banks increase their degree of transparency any further? We show that there is likely to be an optimal intermediate degree of central bank transparency. Up to thisoptimum more transparency is desirable: it improves the quality of private sector inflation forecasts. But beyond the...

This paper considers the problem of forecasting under continuous and discrete structural breaks and proposes weighting observations to obtain optimal forecasts in the MSFE sense. We derive optimal weights for continuous and discrete break processes. Under continuous breaks, our approach recovers...

This paper considers forecast averaging when the same model is used but estimation is carried out over different estimation windows. It develops theoretical results for random walks when their drift and/or volatility are subject to one or more structural breaks. It is shown that compared to...

We empirically investigate how well different learning rules manage to explain the formation of household inflation expectations in six key member countries of the euro area. Our findings reveal a pronounced heterogeneity in the learning rules employed on the country level. While the expectation...

This paper presents original evidence on price setting in the euro area at the individual level. We use micro data on consumer (CPI) and producer (PPI) prices, as well as survey information. Our main findings are: (i) prices in the euro area are sticky and more so than in the US; (ii) there is...

Although some authors have suggested that monetary expansion is still possible when the monetary policy interest rate cannot be reduced further, central banks tend to avoid interest rates close to the zero lower bound. Taking into account central banks.aversion to very low interest rates, we...

The paper has two subjects. The first subject is the development of a monetary general equilibrium model with endogenous growth. By combining the two-sector endogenous growth model and the limited participation approach, the model is able to explain the empirically observed liquidity effect of...

Politicians and car owners are regularly concerned about the level of gasoline prices. Especially, Dutch gasoline prices seem to be high in an European perspective. This paper therefore analyses the developments of gasoline prices in the Netherlands and some other European countries from 1996 up...

The paper has two subjects. The first subject is the development of a monetary general equilibrium model with en- dogenous growth. By combining the two-sector endogenous growth model and the limited participation approach, the model is able to explain the empirically observed liquidity effect of...