We analyse the relationship between tail risk and crisis measures by governments and the central bank. Using an adjusted Merton model in a game theoretical set-up, the analysis shows that the participation constraint for interventions by the central bank and the governments is less binding if...

This paper analyses the problem faced by CEECs wishing to join the Euro who must hit both an inflation and exchange rate criterion during a period of nominal convergence. This process requires either an inflation differential, an appreciating nominal exchange rate, or a combination of the two,...

This paper provides further model-based evidence about the effects of engaging in an Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) when monetary transmission mechanisms differ across countries. Sensitivity analysis to alternative monetary regimes shows that with EMU, where exchange-rate fluctuations are...

This paper shows that a rate hike has countervailing effects on banks' risk appetite. It reduces risk when the debt burden of the banking sector is modest. We model a regulator whose trade-off between bank risk and credit supply is derived from a welfare function. We show that the regulator...

This paper presents a framework that quantifies the trade-offs for a central bank that includes financial stability in its strategy and uses macroprudential instruments next to the interest rate. It is an innovative application of the Kaminsky and Reinhart early warning method, by assuming that...

We construct a new-Keynesian DSGE model tailored to the Netherlands and interpret it as a multivariate unobserved components model. We identify three major stochastic trends in the data—trends in general-purpose technology, investment-specific technology, and labor supply—and model them...

Population aging and pension reform will have profound effects on international capital markets. First, demographic change alters the time path of aggregate savings within each country. Second, this process may be amplified when a pension reform shifts old-age provision towards more pre-funding....

Country members of EMU as well as the United States have improved their fiscal positions during the course of the past decade. This article considers the impact of further government debt and deficit reductions in the EMU area. First the literature on government finance establishing the role of...

This study examines the emergence of financial stability as a key police objective. It discusses the underlying trends in the financial system, as well as the role of finance in relation to money, the real economy and public policy. Financial stability is defined in terms of its ability to help...

This paper presents a number of scenario analyses, based on simulating DNB's multi-country model EUROMON, for the euro area economy. The scenarios deal with monetary policy and budgetary policy actions, and with exogenous shocks such as changes in oil prices, asset prices and exchange rates. The...