In this study we build two forecasting models to predict inflation for the Netherlands and for the euro area. Inflation is the yearly change of the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP). The models provide point forecasts and prediction intervals for both the subcomponents of the HICP and...

This paper conducts a broad-based comparison of iterated and direct multi-period forecasting approaches applied to both univariate and multivariate models in the form of parsimonious factor-augmented vector autoregressions. To account for serial correlation in the residuals of the multi-period...

In this study we build two forecasting models to predict inflation for the Netherlands and for the euro area. Inflation is the yearly change of the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP). The models provide point forecasts and prediction intervals for both the components of the HICP and the...

This paper presents a number of scenario analyses, based on simulating DNB's multi-country model EUROMON, for the euro area economy. The scenarios deal with monetary policy and budgetary policy actions, and with exogenous shocks such as changes in oil prices, asset prices and exchange rates. The...

This paper employs concepts from information theory to choosing the dimension of a data set. We calculate relative measures of information in the data in terms of eigenvalues and derive criteria to determine the `optimal' size of the data set, in particular whether an extra variable adds...

This paper demonstrates that the level of competition in the existing Panzar Rosse (P-R) literature is systematically overestimated and that the tests on both monopoly and perfect competition are distorted. This is due to the use of bank revenues divided by total assets as dependent variable in...

In this paper we investigate the impact of the balance between debt and equity finance on the financial stability of developing countries. Employing extreme bounds analysis to deal with model uncertainty, we estimate a model of an exchange rate pressure index depending on various financial...

This paper is the first detailed and world-wide investigation of the developments in banking competition during the past fifteen years. Using the Panzar-Rosse approach, we establish significant changes over time in the competitiveness of the banking industry. The changes in competition over time...

This paper investigates the position of the Phillips curve in a single currency area, when the countries have different levels of unemployment. We will use the aggregation hypothesis to show that allowing for the dispersion of unemployment is essential to quantifying the level of inflation...

This study analyses the transmission of monetary policy in Germany for the EMS period in the framework of a structural vector error correction model (S-VECM) analysis. Three stable cointegration relationships are found: a money demand relation, an interest rate spread and a stationary real...