This paper investigates the role of inflation risk in a model of the price dividend ratio, combining a dynamic Gordon model specification with the inflation-augmented capital asset pricing model (CAPM). The model is estimated for the Euro Area and U.S. and tested against traditional models. For...

In this paper we analyze the development of house prices for eight different countries over the period 1970-2003. First we look at real house price dynamics of the United States, the United Kingdom, Germany, France, Italy, the Netherlands, Sweden, and Belgium. After discussing the observable...

This paper presents an information variable for financial stability consisting of a composite index and its related critical boundaries. It is an extension of a Financial Conditions Index with information on financial institutions. The indicator is bounded, on one side, by the instability...

In this paper the relationship between stock prices and house prices is analysed for six countries over the years 1976-2001. We find that both asset prices show a positive long-term relationship, which can partly be explained by common macro-economic factors such as credit, consumption and...

We test for the presence of a systematic tail risk premium in the cross-section of expected returns by applying a measure on the sensitivity of assets to extreme market downturns, the tail beta. Empirically, historical tail betas help to predict the future performance of stocks under extreme...

I build a small open economy version of the Calvo-type staggered price-setting model with limited asset market participation, and I show that the inverted aggregate demand logic is less likely to apply to small open economies. The equilibrium dynamics of the model are reduced to a representation...

This paper analyses the reforms in the architecture of EMU since the eruption of the euro crisis in 2010. We describe major weaknesses in the original set-up of EMU, such as lack of fiscal discipline, diverging financial cycles and competitiveness positions, and a lack of crisis instruments....

This paper examines how credit risk affects bank lending and the business cycle. We estimate a panel Vector Autoregression model for an unbalanced sample of 12 OECD countries over the past two to three decades, consisting of the output gap, inflation, the short-term interest rate, bank lending,...

We empirically test whether there is a causal link between the real interest rate and the natural rate of interest, which could be a harbinger of secular stagnation if the real rate declines. Outcomes of VAR models for Japan, Germany and the US show that a fall in the real rate indeed affects...

We study whether clarity of central bank inflation reports affects return volatility in financial markets. We measure clarity of reports by the Czech National Bank, the European Central Bank, the Bank of England, and Sveriges Riksbank using the Flesch-Kincaid grade level, a standard readability...