Showing 1 - 10 of 156
We provide new insights on the formation of inflation expectations - in particular at a time of great financial and … answered a weekly questionnaire about their short-, medium- and long-term inflation expectations. Participants received common … information sets with data relevant to euro area inflation. Our analysis of survey responses reveals several interesting results …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008861749
of inflation risks. The empirical application shows that trading off monetary and macroprudential policy reduces the … overall costs related to inflation and financial instability. This can be achieved by changing the preferences of the central … bank, lengthening the monetary policy horizon and by a more flexible inflation target. Estimation results of a probit model …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008468098
This paper examines robust estimators of core inflation for Belgian historical CPI data, and for euro area Harmonised … outperform the traditional core inflation measures found in the literature. However, as traditional measures, they lag rather … than lead observed inflation. This was particularly so in the 70s and the 80s when the oil price shocks had substantial …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10004970717
prices thereafter. Notwithstanding clear evidence of forward-lookingness, inflation persistence is substantial in both …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005106636
higher than in other monetary unions (US and Germany), and that the distribution of member states' rates of inflation around …We find that regional inflation dispersion has not markedly increased since the start of EMU, although it is somewhat … the euro area HICP inflation rate is characterised by a few outliers. In addition, an analysis based on economic weights …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005106750
We empirically investigate how well different learning rules manage to explain the formation of household inflation … incorporate forward-looking elements (Germany, Italy, the Netherlands), households in other countries employ information on energy … in replicating inflation expectation data but also in forecasting actual inflation rates. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011272316
This paper examines the accuracy of short run forecasts of Dutch GDP growth by several linear statistical models and private sector analysts. We focus on the financial crisis of 2008-2009 and the dot-com recession of 2001-2002. The dynamic factor model turns out to be the best model. Its...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009366263
We conduct a systematic comparison of the short-term forecasting abilities of eleven statistical models and professional analysts in a pseudo-real time setting, using a large set of monthly indicators. Our analysis covers the euro area and its five largest countries over the years 1996-2011. We...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010601717
Although some authors have suggested that monetary expansion is still possible when the monetary policy interest rate cannot be reduced further, central banks tend to avoid interest rates close to the zero lower bound. Taking into account central banks.aversion to very low interest rates, we...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005021839
of inflation on growth and economic welfare. It is shown that the traditional approach to measure the welfare costs of … inflation may be misleading: It ignores the costs or benefits of the transition to the new steady state. This omission may bias … estimates of the total welfare gains to be achieved by reducing inflation and of the optimal degree of disinflation. It is also …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005021865