This paper investigates the ability of the adaptive learning approach to replicate the expectations of professional … simple, yet powerful benchmark models. We find that constant gain models provide a better fit for the expectations of …

Recent literature on monetary policy has emphasised the role of expectations and the merits of tying them down through … then, under the assumption of predetermined expectations. We argue that in these circumstances, the provision of clear …

Theory predicts a number of mechanisms through which survival expectations influence retirement decisions: a wealth … Ageing to test whether the timing of retirement is responsive to subjective survival expectations. Measurement error in … concave relationship between the propensity to retire and survival expectations. Men who are extremely pessimistic about their …

The way in which individual expectations shape aggregate macroeconomic variables is crucial for the transmission and … effectiveness of monetary policy. We study the individual expectations formation process and the interaction with monetary policy … heterogeneous forecasting heuristics, to explain coordination of individual expectations and aggregate macro behavior observed in …