Using real-time data from the annual budget over the period 1958-2009, we explore the planning and realization of fiscal policy in the Netherlands . Our key findings are the following. First, planned surpluses are on average unbiased, although they are overoptimistic during the first half of the...

We provide empirical evidence on two, major war-related, regularities of U.S. fiscal policy. First, while during and around World War I there is a positive correlation between defense spending and civil non-defense spending, this correlation becomes negative during World War II. This may be...

We explore the international spillovers from fiscal policy shocks via trade in Europe. A fiscal expansion stimulates domestic activity, which leads to more foreign exports and, hence, higher foreign output. To quantify this, we combine a panel VAR model in government spending, net taxes and GDP...

We investigate the evolution of public debt management, the policy behaviour of debt managers, and the impact of debt management on financial stability and monetary policy.The focus is on the euro area. Empirical estimations of a debt management reaction function indicate that the share of short...

We investigate to what extent the destination of exports and export composition affect the export performance of euro area countries, using a dataset on exports from euro area countries to their top 20 trade partners for the period 1980-2010. Our analysis shows that European integration has not...

This paper investigates the role of self-enforced national expenditure rules in limiting the expenditure bias and procyclical expenditure increases/decreases due to revenue windfalls/shortfalls. A simple model predicts that expenditure rules can have the intended effects, but only if the...

This paper re-assesses findings of the literature that the systematic debt stabilising response in fiscal policy has been sufficiently strong for keeping debt ratios on a sustainable path in Euro area countries. In doing so, it adjusts the standard approach to the specific context of Economic...

The Dutch government's revenues from natural gas fluctuate heavily and will dry up within several decades. According to the academic literature, only the permanent return on gas wealth should be included as income on the government's annual budget. This would prevent a deterioration in net...

This paper provides a discussion of the `housing market' channels of the monetarytransmission mechanism (MTM) and offers some evidence on institutional differences in the European housing and mortgage markets. Using a number of VAR models, estimated individually for nine European countries over...