Price risk is among the most substantial risk factors for farmers. Through a two-sector general equilibrium model, we describe how fat tails in agricultural prices may occur endogenously as a result of productivity shocks. Using thirty years of daily futures price data, we show that the returns...

We present a new method to examine financial contagion, defined as a sudden strengthening of shock transmission between financial markets. In particular, we develop a correlation-like measure of synchronicity between markets that is straightforward to implement while being insensitive to...

In this paper, we study the aggregated risk from dependent risk factors under the multivariate Extreme Value theory (EVT) framework. We consider the heavy-tailness of the risk factors as well a non-parametric tail dependence structure. This allows a large scope of models on the dependency. We...

This paper studies the effects of verbal interventions by European cen-tral bankers on high-frequency euro-dollar exchange rates. We find that ECB verbal interventions have had only small and short-lived effects. Ver- bal interventions which are reported in news report headlines are more likely...

The empirical evidence of heavy tails in stock return data is recognised by risk managers as an important factor in assessing the Value-at-Risk and risk profile of investment portfolios. Tail index estimation appears to be a tailor-made tool for estimating the extreme quantiles of heavy tailed...

International trade relies on trade finance (credit or insurance) by financial institutions. Data limitations, however, have made it difficult to quantify the impact of changes in the supply of trade finance on trade. This paper is the first to establish a causal link between the supply of...

Private trade credit insurance - covering the risk of non-payment - plays an important role in facilitating domestic and international trade, especially within Europe. Due to lack of data, however, very little is known about the influence of shocks on the market for private trade credit...

We investigate the euro unsecured interbank money market during the current financial crisis. To identify the loans traded in this market and settled in TARGET2, we extend the algorithm developed by Furfine (1999) and adapt it to the European interbank loan market with maturity up to one year....

This paper empirically examines the impact of capital flows on credit growth, credit excesses and banking crises using quarterly panel data from 43 advanced (AEs) and emerging market economies (EMEs). Regressions show that gross capital inflows precede credit growth and credit excesses. Both...

We examine which variables are robust in explaining cross-country differences in the real impact of systemic banking crises. Based on a meta-analysis, we identify 21 variables frequently used as determinants of the severity of crises. Employing nine proxies for crisis severity, we find that...