prices thereafter. Notwithstanding clear evidence of forward-lookingness, inflation persistence is substantial in both …

, Germany and Italy for the period 1991.3-2004.4. Instead of imposing rational expectations, I use direct measures of inflation … lagged inflation, I find that only in France lagged inflation does not have explanatory power beyond predicting expected … inflation. This suggests that only in France the standard forward-looking NKPC effectively captures quarterly inflation dynamics. …

national output gaps constructed turn out to significantly explain future changes in inflation. Moreover, the analysis also … reveals that an aggregate European output gap significantly precedes aggregate European inflation, as well as inflation in the … individual EU countries. These findings imply that an aggregate European output gap may serve as an inflation indicator for the …

dynamics of the model are reduced to a representation in the output gap and domestic inflation, and depend on the degree of …

We provide new insights on the formation of inflation expectations - in particular at a time of great financial and … answered a weekly questionnaire about their short-, medium- and long-term inflation expectations. Participants received common … information sets with data relevant to euro area inflation. Our analysis of survey responses reveals several interesting results …

We explore the role of financial openness - capital account openness and gross capital inflows - and a newly …-variable probit model including in the post-Lehman period. Our key findings are as follows. First, capital account openness is a …