, forecasting performance increases substantially when the construction of optimal weights takes uncertainty around states into …

expectations in six key member countries of the euro area. Our findings reveal a pronounced heterogeneity in the learning rules … prices (France) or form their expectations by means of more traditional learning rules (Belgium, Spain). Moreover, our … in replicating inflation expectation data but also in forecasting actual inflation rates. …

We provide new insights on the formation of inflation expectations - in particular at a time of great financial and … answered a weekly questionnaire about their short-, medium- and long-term inflation expectations. Participants received common …. First, our evidence is consistent with long-term expectations having remained well anchored to the ECB's definition of price …

This paper investigates the ability of the adaptive learning approach to replicate the expectations of professional … simple, yet powerful benchmark models. We find that constant gain models provide a better fit for the expectations of …