This paper uses a large dataset, covering more than 70% of the Dutch housing market, to analyze the relationship between market thinness, price setting behavior and time to sell. Our findings confirm the typical result that overpricing increases the time on market. In addition, we find evidence...

We show how simple statistical techniques for capturing critical transitions used in natural sciences, fail to capture economic regime shifts. This implies that we need to use model-based approaches to identify critical transitions. We apply a heterogenous agents model in a standard housing...

From a macroeconomic point of view, Dutch households are in a basically sound financial position.Nevertheless, at a microeconomic level substantial financial risks may exist. This report presents a profile of the most vulnerable households with special attention to the mortgage debt/house value...

Using a multi-tier model of the housing market, we show that both starters and movers benefit from mortgage interest deduction for higher income groups. However, such tax favouring also tends to facilitate house price explosions, especially when interest rates and downpayment ratios are low....

Based on annual household surveys between 2003 and 2012, we show that owners have a rosy picture of their current house value and hold optimistic views on the historical and expected change in house value compared to general price trends. Optimism is both driven by loss aversion and an endowment...

We introduce heterogeneous expectations in a standard housing market model linking housing rental levels to fundamental buying prices. Using quarterly data we estimate the model parameters for eight different countries, US, UK, NL, JP, CH, ES, SE and BE. We find that the data support...

Using real-time data from the annual budget over the period 1958-2009, we explore the planning and realization of fiscal policy in the Netherlands . Our key findings are the following. First, planned surpluses are on average unbiased, although they are overoptimistic during the first half of the...

We investigate how non-specialists form inflation expectations by running an experiment using a basic Overlapping Generations (OLG) model. The participants of the experiment are students of the University of Amsterdam, who predict inflation during 50 successive periods and are rewarded based on...

Some studies in the literature exert strong criticism with regards to the Structural Policy of the European Union. This study reviews the past Structural Policy and pays special attention to the proposals for the next budgetary period 2007-2013 as laid down in the Dutch IBO-report (2001)....

This paper empirically examines the impact of capital flows on credit growth, credit excesses and banking crises using quarterly panel data from 43 advanced (AEs) and emerging market economies (EMEs). Regressions show that gross capital inflows precede credit growth and credit excesses. Both...