, Germany and Italy for the period 1991.3-2004.4. Instead of imposing rational expectations, I use direct measures of inflation … lagged inflation, I find that only in France lagged inflation does not have explanatory power beyond predicting expected … inflation. This suggests that only in France the standard forward-looking NKPC effectively captures quarterly inflation dynamics. …

This study explores whether the NAIRU is a useful indicator of prospects for inflation in the Netherlands. Apart from …, for short horizons (two years or less) inflation forecasts turn out to be quite invariant to changes in the level of the …

national output gaps constructed turn out to significantly explain future changes in inflation. Moreover, the analysis also … reveals that an aggregate European output gap significantly precedes aggregate European inflation, as well as inflation in the … individual EU countries. These findings imply that an aggregate European output gap may serve as an inflation indicator for the …

essential to quantifying the level of inflation corresponding to any given unemployment rate. Next, we point out that the EMU … aggregation hypothesis. This implies that the level of inflation is now lower for any given level of unemployment, which eases the …

direction, this paper focuses on the identification of expensive trades before actual trading takes place. However, forecasting …

This paper considers the problem of forecasting under continuous and discrete structural breaks and proposes weighting …. In practice, where information on structural breaks is uncertain a forecasting procedure based on robust weights is … performance of our approach relative to other forecasting methods. …

factor model turns out to be the best model. Its forecast accuracy during the crisis deteriorates much less than that of the …-term forecasting performance. …

This paper considers the issue of forecasting financial fragility of banks and insurances using a panel data set of … financial institutions has been relatively stable over the forecast period. …