factor model turns out to be the best model. Its forecast accuracy during the crisis deteriorates much less than that of the …-term forecasting performance. …

We conduct a systematic comparison of the short-term forecasting abilities of eleven statistical models and … factors is a more promising forecasting strategy than averaging a large number of indicator-based forecasts. The dynamic and …

In this study we build two forecasting models to predict inflation for the Netherlands and for the euro area. Inflation … hourly wage rate and the import prices. The model for the Netherlands is used to generate Dutch inflation forecasts over an … horizon of 11-15 months ahead for the Narrow Inflation Projection Exercise (NIPE). NIPE-forecasts have been generated …

This paper examines whether the clarity of central bank communication about inflation has changed with the economic … environment. We use readability statistics and content analysis to study the clarity of communication on the inflation outlook by … explaining their policies when faced with higher uncertainty or a less favorable inflation outlook. The global financial crisis …

of inflation risks. The empirical application shows that trading off monetary and macroprudential policy reduces the … overall costs related to inflation and financial instability. This can be achieved by changing the preferences of the central … bank, lengthening the monetary policy horizon and by a more flexible inflation target. Estimation results of a probit model …

This paper examines robust estimators of core inflation for Belgian historical CPI data, and for euro area Harmonised … outperform the traditional core inflation measures found in the literature. However, as traditional measures, they lag rather … than lead observed inflation. This was particularly so in the 70s and the 80s when the oil price shocks had substantial …

, Germany and Italy for the period 1991.3-2004.4. Instead of imposing rational expectations, I use direct measures of inflation … expectations constructed from Consensus Economics survey data. Dependent on the real marginal costs measure, I obtain significant … lagged inflation, I find that only in France lagged inflation does not have explanatory power beyond predicting expected …

+ respondents could correctly answer two simple questions regarding interest compounding and inflation, and only one …-third understood these as well as stock market risk. Women, minorities, and those without a college degree were particularly at risk of …

This study explores whether the NAIRU is a useful indicator of prospects for inflation in the Netherlands. Apart from …, for short horizons (two years or less) inflation forecasts turn out to be quite invariant to changes in the level of the …