This paper assesses the performance of core inflation measures based on the structural VAR approach. Since core or monetary inflation is not directly observable, we develop a monetary general equilibrium model that fits real aggregated European data and use this model to generate time series for...

This paper assesses the performance of core inflation measures based on the structural VAR approach. Since core or monetary inflation is not directly observable, we develop a monetary general equilibrium model that fits real aggregated European data and use this model to generate time series for...

Formal testing and estimation of nonlinear relations require a substantial number of observations which are typically lacking in annual models. In this paper, a novel two-step procedure is introduced to model nonlinearities in yearly asset-price based leading indicator models for growth. In the...

This report presents leading indicators of real gdp-growth for the United States, Japan and 7 EU member countries. These indicators make use of business cycle indicators developed at the Bank, together with information contained in financial and monetary variables like the yieldcurve, the money...

Some studies in the literature exert strong criticism with regards to the Structural Policy of the European Union. This study reviews the past Structural Policy and pays special attention to the proposals for the next budgetary period 2007-2013 as laid down in the Dutch IBO-report (2001)....

Many empirical studies show that factor models have a relatively high forecast compared to alternative short-term forecasting models. These empirical findings have been established for different data sets and for different forecast horizons. However, choosing the appropriate factor model...

The first part of this paper is based on a study by Faust, Rogers and Wright (2004). They found someevidence of predictability of GDP revisions for the G-7 countrie s, especially for the UK, Italy and Japan. In this paper we investigate the quality of the first Dutch GDP releases by using the...

Using U.S. quarterly data we provide VAR evidence showing that a positive productivity shock leads to a persistent decrease in the unemployment rate and in the price markup, together with an increase in aggregate profits. In response to the shock the labor share of income decreases on impact and...

Recent U.S. evidence suggests that the response of labor share to a productivity shock is characterized by countercyclicality and overshooting. These findings cannot be easily reconciled with existing business cycle models. We extend the Diamond-Mortensen-Pissarides model of search in the labor...

The impact of the global financial crisis varies across countries. We examine whether cross-country differences in output loss and speed of recovery are affected by differences in labor market flexibility. By employing cross-country regressions and including control variables like trade and...