We show how simple statistical techniques for capturing critical transitions used in natural sciences, fail to capture economic regime shifts. This implies that we need to use model-based approaches to identify critical transitions. We apply a heterogenous agents model in a standard housing...

How does a fall in house prices affect real activity? This paper presents a business cycle model in which a decline in house prices reduces geographical mobility, creating distortions in the labor market. This happens because homeowners face declines in their home equity levels, after which it...

We introduce heterogeneous expectations in a standard housing market model linking housing rental levels to fundamental buying prices. Using quarterly data we estimate the model parameters for eight different countries, US, UK, NL, JP, CH, ES, SE and BE. We find that the data support...

This paper provides a discussion of the `housing market' channels of the monetarytransmission mechanism (MTM) and offers some evidence on institutional differences in the European housing and mortgage markets. Using a number of VAR models, estimated individually for nine European countries over...

From a macroeconomic point of view, Dutch households are in a basically sound financial position.Nevertheless, at a microeconomic level substantial financial risks may exist. This report presents a profile of the most vulnerable households with special attention to the mortgage debt/house value...

This report addresses the question whether economic theory can explain the choice of payment media for over-the-counter payments. A survey of the literature reveals that most of the existing microeconomic models are limited to the explanation of the size of cash balance. Only two models describe...

The Boskin report (1996) concluded that the US consumer price index (CPI) overestimated the inflation by 1.1 percentage points. This was due to several measurement errors in the CPI. One of them is called quality change bias. In this paper two methods are compared which can be used to eliminate...

We present the application of network theory to the Dutch payment system with specific attention to systemic stability. The network nodes comprise of domestic banks, large international banks and TARGET countries, the links are established by payments between the nodes. Traditional measures...

This paper discusses the valuation of wage-indexed pension fund liabilities. Valuation by replication with market instruments is typically not possible as there are no wage-indexed assets. This paper discusses several methods to find a value in such incomplete markets and advocates utility-based...

(paper is in Dutch) This study surveys the behavioural finance literature. It discusses both the literature that incorporates behavioural considerations into rational models, and the literature that concentrates on the role of prospect theory and the effect of cognitive-psychological mechanisms...