This paper applies large scale factor models to Dutch quarterly data in order to generate forecasts of GDP growth rates for an horizon up to 8 quarters ahead. The data set consists of the series underlying the cen- tral bank´s macroeconomic structural model for the Netherlands sup- plemented...

We empirically test whether there is a causal link between the real interest rate and the natural rate of interest, which could be a harbinger of secular stagnation if the real rate declines. Outcomes of VAR models for Japan, Germany and the US show that a fall in the real rate indeed affects...

This paper investigates how changes in the monetary policy framework have affected the overnight money market lending rate for the Dutch segment of the euro area during tranquil and crisis times. We present an EGARCH model on the volatility of the overnight lending rate. The results show that...

This study analyses the transmission of monetary policy in Germany for the EMS period in the framework of a structural vector error correction model (S-VECM) analysis. Three stable cointegration relationships are found: a money demand relation, an interest rate spread and a stationary real...

We show that comments by euro area central bankers contain information on future ECB interest rate decisions, but that the comments mainly reflect recent developments in macroeconomic variables. Furthermore, models using only communication variables are outperformed by straightforward Taylor...

This paper shows that a rate hike has countervailing effects on banks' risk appetite. It reduces risk when the debt burden of the banking sector is modest. We model a regulator whose trade-off between bank risk and credit supply is derived from a welfare function. We show that the regulator...

We introduce a structural dynamic network model of the formation of lending relationships in the unsecured interbank market. Banks are subject to random liquidity shocks and can form links with potential trading partners to bilaterally Nash bargain about loan conditions. To reduce credit risk...

This paper describes a model in which monetary shocks have persistent real effects. Starting from the limited participation model of Christiano (1991) with capital adjustment costs as suggested by Dow (1995) it is confirmed that costs of equipment installation and restrictions on consumer...

One of the main criticisms on the original Taylor rule is the so-called real time critique; because data on especially the output gap are only available after some quarters the original Taylor rule is not operational. Moreover, Taylor rules estimated with ex post revised data could result in...

One of the main criticisms on the original Taylor rule is the so-called real time critique; because data on especially the output gap are only available after some quarters the original Taylor rule is not operational. Moreover, Taylor rules estimated with ex post revised data could result in...