This paper investigates contagion of major financial institutions by focusing on extreme stock return co-movements. Our measure of contagion within banking and insurance sectors is the number of coincidences of daily extreme returns that cannot be explained by a linear propagation model of...

Using a multi-tier model of the housing market, we show that both starters and movers benefit from mortgage interest deduction for higher income groups. However, such tax favouring also tends to facilitate house price explosions, especially when interest rates and downpayment ratios are low....

This paper investigates systemic risk in the Dutch financial sector by focusing on extreme returns of the major financial institutions. Our measure of systemic risk is the number of coincidences of extreme returns that cannot be explained by a linear model of constant correlation. By using a...

Macro stress-testing has become an important tool to assess financial stability. This paper describes a tool kit for scenario analysis and macro stress-testing. It is based on a model which maps multivariate scenarios to banks' credit and interest rate risks by deterministic and stochastic...

This paper analyzes the impact of a liquidity requirement similar to the Basel 3 Liquidity Coverage Ratio (LCR) on banks' funding costs and corporate lending rates. Using a dataset of 26 Dutch banks from January 2008 to December 2011, I find that banks which are just above/below their...

This paper employs concepts from information theory to choosing the dimension of a data set. We calculate relative measures of information in the data in terms of eigenvalues and derive criteria to determine the `optimal' size of the data set, in particular whether an extra variable adds...

In this study we build two forecasting models to predict inflation for the Netherlands and for the euro area. Inflation is the yearly change of the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP). The models provide point forecasts and prediction intervals for both the subcomponents of the HICP and...

This paper conducts a broad-based comparison of iterated and direct multi-period forecasting approaches applied to both univariate and multivariate models in the form of parsimonious factor-augmented vector autoregressions. To account for serial correlation in the residuals of the multi-period...