This paper analyses the reforms in the architecture of EMU since the eruption of the euro crisis in 2010. We describe major weaknesses in the original set-up of EMU, such as lack of fiscal discipline, diverging financial cycles and competitiveness positions, and a lack of crisis instruments....

This paper provides a survey on recent developments in the European banking industry. Traditional banking activities have contracted in relative terms, but banks remain the predomination players in the euro area financial system. Economic and monetary integration in the EU has strongly...

To what extent was the credit contraction during the global financial crisis due to more intense screening and monitoring by banks? We address this question by analyzing changes in the structure of a large number of syndicated loans to private, non-financial corporations. We find an increase in...

Simultaneous bank defaults are often attributed to interbank contagion, but can also be due to common shocks affecting banks with similar balance sheets. We disentangle both effects by realising that if financial markets expect a bank's default to be contagious, an increase in this bank's...

The global financial crisis has reignited the debate about the risks of financial globalization, in particular the international transmission of financial shocks. We use data on individual loans by the largest international banks to their various countries of operation to examine whether banks'...

This paper empirically examines the impact of capital flows on credit growth, credit excesses and banking crises using quarterly panel data from 43 advanced (AEs) and emerging market economies (EMEs). Regressions show that gross capital inflows precede credit growth and credit excesses. Both...

This paper investigates the ability of the adaptive learning approach to replicate the expectations of professional forecasters. For a range of macroeconomic and financial variables, we compare constant and decreasing gain learning models to simple, yet powerful benchmark models. We find that...

Population aging and pension reform will have profound effects on international capital markets. First, demographic change alters the time path of aggregate savings within each country. Second, this process may be amplified when a pension reform shifts old-age provision towards more pre-funding....

In the empirical literature, not much support is found for the uncovered interest parity. Especially with free floating exchange rates, the forward rate is a biased predictor of the future exchange rate. This phenomenon can both be explained by an absence of rational expectations or by risk...

We propose in this paper a likelihood-based framework for cointegration analysis in panels of a fixed number of vector error correction models. Maximum likelihood estimators of the cointegrating vectors are constructed using iterated Generalized Method of Moments estimators. Using these...