We empirically test whether there is a causal link between the real interest rate and the natural rate of interest, which could be a harbinger of secular stagnation if the real rate declines. Outcomes of VAR models for Japan, Germany and the US show that a fall in the real rate indeed affects...

This paper investigates how changes in the monetary policy framework have affected the overnight money market lending rate for the Dutch segment of the euro area during tranquil and crisis times. We present an EGARCH model on the volatility of the overnight lending rate. The results show that...

We investigate whether the anchoring properties of long-run inflation expectations in the United States, the euro area and the United Kingdom have changed around the economic crisis that erupted in mid-2007. We document that in these three economies, expectations measures extracted from...

Since its inception, the European Central Bank (ECB) has regarded communication as anintegral part of its monetary policy. This paper describes and evaluates ECB communications during the first decade of its operation.We conclude that, overall, ECB communication has contributed to the...

We show that comments by euro area central bankers contain information on future ECB interest rate decisions, but that the comments mainly reflect recent developments in macroeconomic variables. Furthermore, models using only communication variables are outperformed by straightforward Taylor...

This paper shows that a rate hike has countervailing effects on banks' risk appetite. It reduces risk when the debt burden of the banking sector is modest. We model a regulator whose trade-off between bank risk and credit supply is derived from a welfare function. We show that the regulator...

We study whether clarity of central bank inflation reports affects return volatility in financial markets. We measure clarity of reports by the Czech National Bank, the European Central Bank, the Bank of England, and Sveriges Riksbank using the Flesch-Kincaid grade level, a standard readability...

Survey evidence indicates that inflation expectations increased after HICP inflation rose markedly in the course of 2007 and the first half of 2008, underpinning a general view that inflation expectations may have become unanchored from the ECB's target. However, until now there has been no...

This paper examines corporate credit risks in the Netherlands at the industry-level, addressing two key questions. First, to what extent are corporate credit risks driven by idiosyncratic financial factors or systematic macroeconomic factors? Second, did debt financing in the late 1990s indeed...

This study is an introduction to and summary of the 2002 Annual Meeting papers of the Royal Netherlands Economic Association. The general theme of this year's Annual Meeting is 'The role of wealth in the economy'. It is covered by 5 papers, which address the following topics: (i) household...