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Predicting Indian Business Cycles: Leading Indices for External and Domestic Sectors

Dua, Pami - eSocialSciences - 2007

This paper evaluates the real-time performance of the growth rate of the DSE-ECRI Indian leading index for exports for predicting cyclical downturns and upturns in the growth rate of Indian exports. The index comprises the 36-country real effective exchange rate and leading indices of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005341649

New issues in Indian macro policy

Shah, Ajay - eSocialSciences - 2008

For many decades, macro-policy in India was conducted in an environment with five key elements: Agricultural shocks rather than a conventional business cycle; A closed economy; deeply distortionary tax policy coupled with a fiscal crisis; financial markets that lacked speculative price discovery,...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005341747

Detection and Forecasting of Islamic Calendar Effects in Time Series Data: Revisited

Rao, Nasir Hamid; Bukhari, Syed Kalim Hyder; Jalil, Abdul - eSocialSciences - 2011

This paper is an attempt to revisit the pioneering work of Riazuddin and Khan (2002). A complete business cycle has been elapsed (2002-2010) since their study, so there is need to review the results with additional information. This revisited attempt, based on a theoretically specified...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009321494

Predicting Recessions and Slowdowns: A Robust Approach

Dua, Pami; Banerji, Anirvan - eSocialSciences - 2011

This paper defines business and growth rate cycles and describes the importance of key coincident indicators and reference chronologies, following reflections on the definition of a recession. The robustness of turning point forecasts based on the indicator approach to business and growth rate...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009323769

The Financial Accelerator: An Emerging Market Story

Hussein, Shah; Saeed, Amna; Hassan, Amer - eSocialSciences - 2011

In support of the financial-accelerator theory, evidence is found on countercyclical price-cost banking margins possibly explaining the amplifications of business cycles in Pakistan. [WP 41]. URL:[http://www.sbp.org.pk/publications/wpapers/2011/wp41.pdf].

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009358537

The Difficulties of the Chinese and Indian Exchange Rate Regimes

Shah, Ajay; Patnaik, Ila - eSocialSciences - 2009

China and India have both attempted distorting the exchange rate in order to foster exports-led growth. This is described as the Bretton Woods II framework, where developing countries buy bonds in the US and keep undervalued exchange rates, in order to foster export-led growth. The costs and...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008543130

The Lancang-Mekong River Basin: Reflections on Cooperation Mechanisms Pertaining to a Shared Watercourse

Sunchindah, Apichai - eSocialSciences - 2013

The ambitious development plans for the Lancang-Mekong River Basin (LMRB) could have serious environmental, social, cultural and even geopolitical ramifications that could in turn destabilise the Mekong Subregion (MS). On the premise that frameworks for regional cooperation offer a viable route...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010945328

Emerging through Technological Capability: An Overview of Indiaâ€™s Technological Trajectory

Ray, Amit Shovon - eSocialSciences - 2008

In this paper an overview of Indiaâ€™s technological trajectory with a view to understanding the nuances of Indiaâ€™s technological capability and the role it has played in the process of Indiaâ€™s economic progress. [WP No. 227].

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005341765

The China-Japan-US Triangle

Vogel, Ezra F. - eSocialSciences - 2006

between the three great powers in the region: China, Japan and the United States. This paper discusses relations between China …, Japan and the United States since World War II. It looks at three periods of critical changes in their relations - 1947 to … fates of the three countries are interlinked. The challenge for the US-Japan-China triangle is to create the positive …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005341800

On the Road: Access to Transportation Infrastructure and Economic Growth in China

Banerjee, Abhijit; Duflo, Esther; Qian, Nancy - eSocialSciences - 2012

This paper estimates the effect of access to transportation networks on regional economic outcomes in China over a twenty-period of rapid income growth. It addresses the problem of the endogenous placement of networks by exploiting the fact that these networks tend to connect historical...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009652075