This paper evaluates the real-time performance of the growth rate of the DSE-ECRI Indian leading index for exports for predicting cyclical downturns and upturns in the growth rate of Indian exports. The index comprises the 36-country real effective exchange rate and leading indices of...

This paper contributes to two strands of literature on empirical models of trade flows and trade policy. The first and the older strand is that of gravity models of bilateral trade flows going back to Hans Linneman (1966) and Tinbergen (1962) and its recent applications, particularly by Adams et...

China’s expected growth slowdown - from 10.3 per cent yoy in 2010 to 8.9 per cent this year and 8.3 per cent in 2012 - will impact the global economy. An in-depth look at how important China really is for the rest of the world. Also, potential speed bumpers ahead that might lead to...

The paper attempts to analyse the emerging contours of regulation of financial institutions with an emphasis on the emerging challenges and dynamics. [Paper prepared for Financial Stability Review of Bank of France].

There have been significant developments in the global economy since we met in the fall of 2010. The IMF too has moved on several fronts under its mandate which has strengthened its position in a changing world. There are several key questions confronting us today: Is the recovery assured in the...

A key driver of foreign investment in land, food security is a challenge mankind has been confronted with in various times and places. Wherever human societies have developed, growing needs have led to increasing arable land, and when land has been limited by nature or wars, food shortages...

The experience of childhood is increasingly urban. Over half the world’s people – including more than a billion children – now live in cities and towns. This report adds to the growing body of evidence and analysis, from UNICEF and partners, that scarcity and dispossession...

Pre-harvest lean seasons are widespread in the agrarian areas of Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa. Every year, these seasonal famines force millions of people to succumb to poverty and hunger. An incentive of $8.50 is assigned to households in Bangladesh to out-migrate during the lean season, and...

Governments frequently compartmentalize issues of reform and reconstruction into separate strategies and separate ministries (the fate of poverty reduction as well). Donors do likewise, for each has its own responsibilities; the IMF focuses on reform, the UN concentrates on conflict resolution...

It is clear from the implications of growth theory that the impact of aid depends on how it affects savings, investment and government behaviour. In respect of low-income countries, which are the principal aid recipients and the economies for which the issue of the impact of aid on growth is...