This paper evaluates the real-time performance of the growth rate of the DSE-ECRI Indian leading index for exports for predicting cyclical downturns and upturns in the growth rate of Indian exports. The index comprises the 36-country real effective exchange rate and leading indices of...

For many decades, macro-policy in India was conducted in an environment with five key elements: Agricultural shocks rather than a conventional business cycle; A closed economy; deeply distortionary tax policy coupled with a fiscal crisis; financial markets that lacked speculative price discovery,...

This paper is an attempt to revisit the pioneering work of Riazuddin and Khan (2002). A complete business cycle has been elapsed (2002-2010) since their study, so there is need to review the results with additional information. This revisited attempt, based on a theoretically specified...

This paper defines business and growth rate cycles and describes the importance of key coincident indicators and reference chronologies, following reflections on the definition of a recession. The robustness of turning point forecasts based on the indicator approach to business and growth rate...

In support of the financial-accelerator theory, evidence is found on countercyclical price-cost banking margins possibly explaining the amplifications of business cycles in Pakistan. [WP 41]. URL:[http://www.sbp.org.pk/publications/wpapers/2011/wp41.pdf].

China and India have both attempted distorting the exchange rate in order to foster exports-led growth. This is described as the Bretton Woods II framework, where developing countries buy bonds in the US and keep undervalued exchange rates, in order to foster export-led growth. The costs and...

Resolution and conclusions of the 101st Session of the International Labour Conference, Geneva, 2012. [ILO].

RBI has taken several steps to improve the processing of data. Information system will also be enhanced very soon. [Remarks at Reserve Bank of India at the 8th Statistics Day Conference, Mumbai].

The Financial Crisis of 2007-2008 and the Great Recession of 2007-2009 are now in the past. Again there was the debt crisis of 2010-11. During the worst of the recent financial crisis/Great Recession many observers made comparisons between that event and the Great Depression. The lecture...

Substantial international aid is spent reducing the cost of contraception in developing countries, as part of a larger effort to reduce global fertility and increase investment per child worldwide. The importance for fertility behaviors of keeping contraceptive prices low, however, remains...