Defining appropriate probability distributions for the variables in an economic model is an important and often arduous task. This paper evaluates the performance of several common probability distributions under different distributional assumptions when sample sizes are small and there is...

The U.S. sheep inventory has been declining for many years. To further investigate this trend, an econometric sector model using single demand equations was developed to analyze the impacts of two alternative levels of wool marketing loan rates.

This paper examines the diffusion of specific rice varieties, as opposed to variety classes in the previous literature. Using simulation techniques to incorporate risk into the diffusion path, new variety product life cycle diffusion is projected with implications for breeders, researchers, and...

Real options analysis integrates uncertain outcomes of investment decisions. This framework is used to analyze a new product launch from an agricultural business to a market with multiple uncertainties. Findings indicate a more accurate valuation of the investment when real options and their...

Will a more tightly aligned system become the exclusive coordination or governance system in the pork industry? The analysis shows that the packer prefers to source hogs from both an aligned market and an independent market. This result is because the packer, facing variability in the demand for...

Monte-Carlo simulation modeling is used to perform a feasibility study of alternative locations for a MixAlco production facility. Net present value distributions will be ranked within feasible risk aversion boundaries. If MixAlco is a profitable investment, it would have a major impact on the...

The probability of success for an immigrating Dutch dairy farmer was analyzed using a whole farm simulation model. Data used to simulate the U.S. farms came from the AFPC's database of representative U.S. dairies and projected mean annual prices from FAPRI. Data on the Dutch dairy used for...

Evaluating the risk of a particular decision depends on the risk aversion of the decision maker related to the underlying utility function. The objective of this paper is to use stochastic efficiency with respect to a function (SERF) to compare the ranking of risky alternatives using alternative...