model and estimate by maximum likelihood the parameters governing the market price of risk. We show that agents' beliefs about the joint evolution of macroeconomic variables has changed in quantitatively important and economically meaningful ways. Moreover, macroeconomic factors turn out to be...

This paper examines welfare-maximizing monetary policy in an estimated dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model of the U.S. economy where the policymaker faces uncertainty about the true values of model parameters. Uncertainty about parameters describing preferences and technology implies...

Inflation and unemployment are central issues in macroeconomics. While much progress has been made on these issues by incorporating frictions using search theory, existing models analyze either unemployment or inflation. We develop a framework to analyze unemployment and inflation together. This...