We rely on the French customs firm-level data and a model of imperfect competition on international markets to study how exporters pass a change in the VAT rate of one importing country through their prices. Contrasting with exchange-rate shocks, VAT-rate changes are longlasting, do not affect...

Using the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters we find evidence that those forecasters draw systematically biased predictions and disagree even if they forecast the same variable. Recent theoretical advances in the macroeconomics of imperfect information relate these bias and disagreement to...