Eusepi, Stefano; Crump, Richard; Moench, Emanuel; … - Society for Economic Dynamics - SED - 2014
We study the term structure of disagreement of professional forecasters for key macroeconomic variables. We document a novel set of facts: (i) forecasters disagree at all horizons including the very long run; (ii) the shape of the term structure of disagreement differs markedly across variables:...