War, whether external or internal, large or small, is a costly endeavor. Loss of life, loss of close friends or family …, and the destruction of material possessions all play a part in the costs of war. The purpose of this paper is to capture …-peaceful world. But how much would individual be willing to pay to avoid just the economic costs of conflict? Remarkably, even these …

of war; 2) given the war, what explains the reduction in economic growth in terms physical capital, labor force, human … capital, and productivity; and 3) what potential growth scenarios for Syria there could be in the aftermath of war. Estimates …

increasing term structure for the risk premium. It also implies that, under the assumption that the cumulants of the distribution … investment is larger than half of relative risk aversion. Another important consequence of parametric uncertainty is that the … risk premium is not proportional to the beta of the investment. We apply these general results to the case of an uncertain …

and skewness of world gross domestic product growth are associated with ex-ante information of four risk factors: term … methodology also decomposes the variance and skewness of the predictive distribution accounting for the shares of selected risk … application to forecast world gross domestic product growth is used to test the Bayesian entropy methodology. Predictive variance …

-2018 may have caused a 1 percentage point decline in world trade growth. The paper also finds that the impact of policy …