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We provide the planner's solution to a model where households learn from exogenous natural disaster arrivals about arrival rates and spend to mitigate future damages. Mitigation cannot be decentralized due to positive externalities from curtailing aggregate risks. First-best can be implemented...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012482023
This paper documents several facts on the real effects of economic uncertainty. First, higher uncertainty is associated with a more dispersed distribution of output growth. Second, the relation is highly asymmetric: A rise in uncertainty is associated with a sharp decline in the lower tail of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012482243
We reconsider the empirical links between volatility and growth between 1970 and 2007. There is a strong and significant correlation between individual country growth rates and global factors that are arguably exogenous with respect to their economies. The amount of volatility driven by these...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012463424
accounts for the interaction between temperature, economic growth and risk. The model simultaneously matches the projected … temperature path, the observed consumption growth dynamics, discount rates provided by the risk-free rate and equity market …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012455671
A growing body of evidence suggests that uncertainty is counter cyclical, rising sharply in recessions and falling in booms. But what is the causal relationship between uncertainty and growth? To identify this we construct cross country panel data on stock market levels and volatility as proxies...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012459187
In this paper we show that temperature is an aggregate risk factor that adversely affects economic growth. Our argument … temperature (i.e., temperature betas) contains sharp information about the cross-country risk premium; countries closer to the … Equator carry a positive temperature risk premium which decreases as one moves farther away from the Equator. The differences …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012461083
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010529313
of war; 2) given the war, what explains the reduction in economic growth in terms physical capital, labor force, human … capital, and productivity; and 3) what potential growth scenarios for Syria there could be in the aftermath of war. Estimates …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012113903
, economic uncertainty, and risk premia influence firms' financing and default policies. Countercyclical fluctuations in risk …. These comovements generate large credit risk premia for investment grade firms, which helps address the "credit spread …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012462506
The adoption and diffusion of technological knowledge is generally regarded as a key element in a country's economic success. However, as is the case with most types of information, the transfer of technological knowledge is likely to be subject to adverse selection problems. In this paper we...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012465146