of war; 2) given the war, what explains the reduction in economic growth in terms physical capital, labor force, human … capital, and productivity; and 3) what potential growth scenarios for Syria there could be in the aftermath of war. Estimates …

As part of their commitments under the World Trade Organization's Agreement on Trade Facilitation, many developing … countries are set to adopt risk management, a strategy for selecting import shipments for inspection. This paper formalizes key … enforcement issues related to risk management. It argues that the complexities of international trade oversight mean that …

food crises possible. This paper develops a predictive, statistical framework to identify drivers of food insecurity risk … with simulation capabilities for scenario analyses, risk assessment and forecasting purposes. It utilizes a panel vector …

and skewness of world gross domestic product growth are associated with ex-ante information of four risk factors: term … methodology also decomposes the variance and skewness of the predictive distribution accounting for the shares of selected risk … application to forecast world gross domestic product growth is used to test the Bayesian entropy methodology. Predictive variance …

Catastrophe risk models are quantitative models used to estimate probabilistic loss distributions for a specified range … of assets subject to a baseline level of disaster risk. While cat risk models are used extensively by the insurance and … physical assets such as buildings or infrastructure is still limited. This paper first provides a brief outline of cat risk …