This paper presents two empirical tools to quantify the impacts of tariff changes on bilateral trade and welfare. Both tools are rooted in the structural gravity literature. The first tool estimates the impact of tariff changes on bilateral trade for 5,020 products in a partial equilibrium...

The paper tabulates Myanmar's merchandise trade as reported by its partner countries, thereby circumventing the data constraints stemming from Myanmar's patchy trade records. It then estimates Myanmar's export potential, based on the bilateral export patterns observed for six other countries in...

The paper tabulates Myanmar’s merchandise trade as reported by its partner countries, thereby circumventing the data constraints stemming from Myanmar’s patchy trade records. It then estimates Myanmar’s export potential, based on the bilateral export patterns observed for six other...

Since the onset of the ongoing United States (US)-People's Republic of China (PRC) trade dispute in 2017, stakeholders and experts alike have expressed deep concerns that the tensions would come at a cost for the countries involved and the global economy. In this paper, we endeavor to quantify...

The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) presents strong potential to mold regional trade and investment patterns well into the future and to influence the direction of global economic cooperation at a challenging time. This paper evaluates the RCEP and estimates its potential...

This paper examines the structure and direction of developing Asia's trade over the past two decades. The impacts on developing Asia of the economic slowdown in 2009–2010 in high-income countries of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), which includes the European...

Developing Asia's rapid economic growth has been shifting the global economic and industrial centers of gravity away from the North Atlantic, raising the importance of Asia in world trade, and boosting South–South trade. How will trade patterns change over the next 2 decades in the course of...

After two generations of economic growth, the next phase of structural transformation for Asia will have several salient features. Our results suggest that no single policy orientation, pathway, or even destination will apply to all economies. The main driver for each economy's structural change...

After two generations of economic growth, the next phase of structural transformation for Asia will have several salient features. Our results suggest that no single policy orientation, pathway, or even destination will apply to all economies. The main driver for each economy’s structural...

Developing Asia’s rapid economic growth has been shifting the global economic and industrial centers of gravity away from the North Atlantic, raising the importance of Asia in world trade, and boosting South–South trade. How will trade patterns change over the next 2 decades in the course of...