While it is widely agreed that Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) holds as a long-run concept the specific dynamic driving the process is largely build upon a priori economic belief rather than a thorough statistical modeling procedure. The two prevailing time series models, i.e. the exponential...

We present a simple model of internal and external balance that incorporates the key features of resource-rich developing countries (RRDCs). The main result is that "government take", which is the ratio of fiscal resource revenue to resource output, is a key determinant of the equilibrium real...

In this paper we introduce a new nonlinear Markov-STAR model to capture both the markov switching and smooth transition dynamics for real exchange rates. The Markov switching part captures the effect of time variations of the equilibrium exchange rates, while the smooth transition part models...

Tepid trade growth since the 2008/2009 global financial crisis (GFC) has been partly attributed to sluggish demand from developed countries. However, data reveals that developing countries play a bigger role in holding back trade growth, while developed countries show quite robust import growth....

We examine the asymptotic behavior of unit root tests against nonlinear alternatives of the exponential smooth transition type if the data is erroneously nonlinearly transformed. We show analytically and by a Monte Carlo study that the probability of rejecting the correct null of a random walk...

How is it possible that exchange rates move in the long run towards fundamentals, while professionals form consistently irrational exchange rate expectations? We look at this puzzle from a different perspective by analyzing investor sentiment in the US-dollar market. First, long-horizon...

Real exchange rate (RER) misalignment, which is the deviation between the actual real exchange rate from its equilibrium, occurs frequently among developing economies. Studies have shown that RER misalignment may have negative economic implications, such as a reduction in economic growth,...

This paper investigates the role of “absorptive capacity” to manage unexpected shocks to their real economy, with a focus on small, open, natural resource-dependent economies. A quarterly panel data series for 45 countries is constructed, including 23 developing Asian countries for empirical...

This paper examines the nexus between capital flows and real exchange rate (RER) in emerging Asian countries using a dynamic panel-data model for 2000–2009. In contrast to previous studies, capital flows here are separated into foreign direct investment (FDI), portfolio investment, and other...

This paper examines the equilibrium real exchange rate and real exchange rate misalignments in developing Asian countries during the period 1995–2008. In addition, the relationship between real exchange rate misalignment and export performance is investigated. In the lead-up to the 1997-1998...