This paper presents a theoretical model to analyze the effects of technology change on growth rates of income and human capital in the uncertain environments of technology. The uncertainty comes from two sources; the possibility of a technology advance and the characteristics of new...

Asia's rapid population aging fortifies the case for strengthening human capital investments. Further, the experience of the newly industrialized economies suggests that human capital investments will be a vital ingredient of the transition from middle income to high income. Those investments...

This study develops a framework to forecast India's gross domestic product growth on a quarterly frequency from 2004 to 2018. The models, which are based on real and monetary sector descriptions of the Indian economy, are estimated using Bayesian vector autoregression (BVAR) techniques. The real...

The substantial literature on the existence of an inverted U-shaped relationship between environmental degradation and economic growth-known as the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC)-has produced very mixed evidence. This largely depends on model and variable selection uncertainty. We address...

The literature on the finance-growth nexus highlights the importance of the financial cycle for the estimation of potential output of an economy. We estimate potential output growth for the G-5 countries, as well as for 10 high- and middle-income Asian economies, using a multivariate model that...

The recent decline in gross domestic product (GDP) growth in India raised a debate about whether it is a trend or a business cycle slowdown. We observe a cyclical downturn post-global financial crisis due to external and domestic conditions. With global recovery strengthening and appropriate...

The rapid accumulation of private debt is widely viewed as a major risk to financial and economic stability. This paper systematically and comprehensively assesses the effect of private debt buildup on economic growth. In the spirit of Mian, Sufi, and Verner (2017) that separately examine the...

This paper analyzes why the Philippines' growth performance has improved significantly in recent years. As in the medium to long term actual growth adjusts to potential, we posit that the reason behind this improvement is that the country’s potential growth is increasing. We derive an estimate...

The People's Republic of China's (PRC) remarkable growth performance over the last 3 decades has been associated to very robust export growth, so much so that many refer to it as a clear example of export-led growth (ELG). Using the concept of the balance-of-payments equilibrium (BOPE) growth...

This paper surveys the empirical and theoretical link between education and growth in the growth process of Asian countries. Particular attention is paid to the link between education and productivity, and to models that characterize key features of growth processes of Asian countries. Empirical...