Showing 1 - 10 of 213
This is done in relation to the benchmark of World Economic Outlook (WEO) projections by the International Monetary Fund. Amid much heterogeneity across countries and years, it has been found that ADO and WEO projections overlap quite closely. Both are inaccurate, especially during crisis years,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011955528
The Asian Development Outlook (ADO) provides growth and inflation forecasts for more than 40 economies in the region. This paper assesses the accuracy of those forecasts against actual outcomes for the years from 2008 to 2011. The World Economic Outlook (WEO) forecasts by the International...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010241351
"This study reviews and analyzes the changes in total factor productivity (TFP) growth in 12 Asian economies - the People's Republic of China; Hong Kong, China; India; Indonesia; the Republic of Korea; Malaysia; Pakistan; the Philippines; Singapore; Taipei,China; Thailand; and Viet Nam - for the period...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008749684
This study develops a framework to forecast India's gross domestic product growth on a quarterly frequency from 2004 to … targeting. The predictive ability of over 3,000 BVAR models is assessed through a set of forecast evaluation statistics and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011984158
This study provides a toolkit to nowcast, or produce early estimates of, gross domestic product (GDP) growth in India. We use a dynamic factor model (DFM) to nowcast GDP growth in India on a quarterly basis from January 2000 to December 2018. The DFM methodology offers a powerful and tractable...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012110450
"In this paper, we analyze the determinants of the domestic saving rate in developing Asia during 1966–2007 and find … project future trends in domestic saving rates in developing Asia for 2011–2030 based on our estimation results, and find that … the aging of the population will be the main determinant of future trends in domestic saving rates in developing Asia …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008749644
"This paper investigates the determinants of past changes in the labor force of 12 emerging Asian countries, and attempts to make projections of the labor force in those countries for the period 2010-f 2030. Results from the regression analysis indicate that the labor force has grown faster than...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008749747
developing Asia up to 2050. Using a simple stylized model and the National Transfer Accounts data set, we simulate the effect of … still-growing working-age populations. Overall, our simulation results indicate that Asia's population aging will adversely …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011579017
We use a dynamic forecasting model to evaluate a wide array of opportunities for sustained economic growth in Myanmar. Our simulation results suggest that the government of Myanmar can advance potential growth drivers, by maintaining a stable macroeconomic environment that is conducive to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011281273
Using a growth accounting framework, we find that developing Asia grew rapidly over the past 3 decades mainly due to … the convergence phenomenon. By expanding at robust rates, developing Asia will account for close to two thirds of the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008749709