This paper was commissioned by DG ECFIN from the EU Commission as part of the "EMU@10" project and is published in Hungarian language by the permission of the EU Commission. The original English language version of the paper is available at:...

The paper discusses the risks and challenges faced by the new members on the road to the euro and the strategies for and timing of euro adoption. We investigate the real-nominal convergence nexus from the perspective of euro area entry. We argue that the initial level of economic development as...

The case for taxing financial transactions merely to raise more revenues from the financial sector is not particularly strong. Better alternatives to tax the financial sector are likely to be available. However, a tax on financial transactions could be justified in order to limit socially...

The Chinese stock market features an interesting history of divided market segments: domestic (A), foreigners' (B) and overseas (H). This puts forth questions of market integration as well as cross-divisional information transmission. We address these issues in a structural DCC framework, an...

In recent years support vector regression (SVR), a novel neural network (NN) technique, has been successfully used for financial forecasting. This paper deals with the application of SVR in volatility forecasting. Based on a recurrent SVR, a GARCH method is proposed and is compared with a moving...

This paper relates on the impact of global crisis on China from a systemic point of view. In what ways external and internal adaptation pressures influenced the transformation of the party-state system in China? Did reactions have an impact on the transformation of political or economic system?...

In this paper, we review the most common specifications of discrete-time stochastic volatility (SV) models and illustrate the major principles of corresponding Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) based statistical inference. We provide a hands-on ap proach which is easily implemented in empirical...

The Heston model stands out from the class of stochastic volatility (SV) models mainly for two reasons. Firstly, the process for the volatility is nonnegative and mean-reverting, which is what we observe in the markets. Secondly, there exists a fast and easily implemented semi-analytical...

Motivated by increment process modeling for two correlated random and non-random systems from a discrete-time asset pricing with both risk free asset and risky security, we propose a class of semiparametric regressions for a combination of a non-random and a random system. Unlike classical...