We study the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on euro area inflation and how it compares to the experiences of other countries, such as the United States, over the two-year period 2020-21. Our model-based calibration exercises deliver four key results: (1) compositional effects, or the switch...

We study the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on euro area inflation and how it compares to the experiences of other countries, such as the United States, over the two-year period 2020-21. Our model-based calibration exercises deliver four key results: (1) compositional effects, or the switch...

We estimate a multi-country, multi-sector New Keynesian model to quantify the drivers of domestic inflation during 2020-23 in several countries, including the United States. The model matches observed inflation together with sector-level prices and wages. We further measure the relative...

The last decade has been characterised by the pronounced volatility of capital flows. While cross-border capital flows can have many benefits for both advanced and emerging market economies, they may also carry risks, which require appropriate policy responses. Disentangling the push from the...

Conditionality is at the very heart of IMF lending and has been the subject of intense debates ever since the Fund’s inception. Its success is of crucial importance not only for countries’ chances of achieving the goals of IMF lending programmes, but also for the credibility of the Fund as a...