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Short-term forecasts of euro area real GDP growth: an assessment of real-time performance based on vintage data

Diron, Marie - 2006

Economic policy makers, international organisations and private-sector forecasters commonly use short-term forecasts of real GDP growth based on monthly indicators, such as industrial production, retail sales and confidence surveys. An assessment of the reliability of such tools and of the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011604668

The global economic crisis: Impact on India and policy responses

Kumar, Rajiv; Vashisht, Pankaj - 2009

India's financial sector is not deeply integrated with the global financial system, which spared it the first round adverse effects of the global financial crisis and left Indian banks mostly unaffected. However, as the financial crisis morphed in to a full-blown global economic downturn, India...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010279786

America's financial crisis: The end of an era

Bosworth, Barry; Flaaen, Aaron - 2009

This paper reviews research on the origins of the financial crisis of 2008-2009, highlights the key events that triggered a financial panic in September 2008, and summarizes the extraordinary policy actions the United States (US) has taken to ameliorate the crisis. We discuss the proximate...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010279848

Crisis, imbalances, and India

Kumar, Rajiv; Vashisht, Pankaj - 2011

With the revival of global economy, the issues of exit policies and rebalancing global growth have taken center stage in policy discussions. Since many emerging Asian economies presently have large current account surpluses, the issue of rebalancing has special significance for Asia. While...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010286092

An Asian perspective on global financial reforms

Morgan, Peter J.; Pontines, Victor - 2013

The purpose of this study is to better understand the likely impact on Asian economies and financial institutions of various recent global financial reforms, including Basel III capital adequacy and liquidity rules. Part one reviews the lessons of the global financial crisis (GFC) of 2007-09 and...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010397299

How repayments manipulate our perceptions about loan dynamics after a boom

Adalid, Ramón; Falagiarda, Matteo - 2018

We propose a method to decompose net lending flows into loan origination and repayments. We show that a boom in loan origination is transmitted to repayments with a very long lag, depressing the growth rate of the stock for many periods. In the euro area, repayments of the mortgage loans granted...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012142055

Putting the New Keynesian DSGE model to the real-time forecasting test

Kolasa, Marcin; Rubaszek, Michał; Skrzypczyński, Paweł - 2009

. Nevertheless, their forecasting properties are still barely explored. We fill this gap by comparing the quality of real … priors from a DSGE model. We show that the analyzed DSGE model is relatively successful in forecasting the US economy in the … accurate short-term forecasts for interest rates. Conditional on experts' now casts, however, the forecasting power of the DSGE …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011605156

Euro area labour markets: different reaction to shocks?

Brůha, Jan; Pierluigi, Beatrice; Serafini, Roberta - 2011

A small labour market model for the six largest euro area countries (Germany, France, Italy, Spain, the Netherlands, Belgium) is estimated in a state -space framework. The model entails, in the long run, four driving forces: a trend labour force component, a trend labour productivity component,...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011605330

Understanding and forecasting aggregate and disaggregate price dynamics

Bermingham, Colin; D’Agostino, Antonello - 2011

The issue of forecast aggregation is to determine whether it is better to forecast a series directly or instead construct forecasts of its components and then sum these component forecasts. Notwithstanding some underlying theoretical results, it is generally accepted that forecast aggregation is...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011605411

Determinants of credit-less recoveries

Bijsterbosch, Martin; Dahlhaus, Tatjana - 2011

This paper aims to shed light on the characteristics and particularly the determinants of credit-less recoveries. After building a dataset and documenting some stylised facts of credit-less recoveries in emerging market economies, this paper uses panel probit models to analyse key determinants...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011605404

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