It has been argued that credit-to-GDP gaps (credit gap) are useful early warning indicators for banking crises. In addition, the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision has also advocated using these gaps - estimated using a one-sided Hodrick-Prescott filter with a smoothing parameter of 400,000...

This paper examines the costs of recent sovereign defaults using synthetic control methods, a novel econometric technique based on comparative case studies. Evidence on the effects of debt crises is thus presented on a case-by-case basis, uncovering large variations in country-specific...

We use credit reports, survey data, and two natural experiments that increase health insurance coverage—Medicare eligibility and the Affordable Care Act's Under 26 provision—to study the financial protection provided by health insurance.

The existence of a home court advantage is one of the most durable empirical patterns in all of sports. Yet, the sociological and psychological mechanisms explaining its strength and persistence remain a mystery in large part because of well-known challenges with statistical identification. We...

We create a state-level measure of economic and police uncertainty during the 2007-2009 recession. Despite claims in the literature, the variation in this uncertainty measure matches the cross-sectional distribution of unemployment outcomes in this period. This relationship is robust to numerous...

Long-term data show that the dynamic efficiency condition r>g holds when g is represented by the average growth rate of real GDP if r is the average real rate of return on equity, E(re ), but not if r is the risk-free rate, rf .

This paper examines the impact of cargo preference requirements, which create market power for domestic shipping companies, on the effectiveness of USAID's Food for Peace emergency food aid program.

Jorge Mario Bergoglio, since becoming Pope Francis in March 2013, is focusing on martyrdom in the Roman Catholic Church.