We reconsider the issue of price discovery in spot and futures markets. We use a threshold error correction model to allow for arbitrage opportunities to have an impact on the return dynamics. We estimate the model using quote midpoints, and we modify the model to account for time-varying...

This paper considers the dynamics of spot and futures prices in the presence of arbitrage. A partially linear error correction model is proposed where the adjustment coefficient is allowed to depend non-linearly on the lagged price difference. The model is estimated using data on the DAX index...

The taxation of dividends in Germany underwent major changes. We analyze the implications of these changes for the valuation of DAX futures contracts and test the resulting hypotheses empirically. We find that dividend taxation cannot explain the level of deviations from the cost-of-carry...

We develop a model of illiquidity transmission from spot to futures markets that formalizes the derivative hedge theory of Cho and Engle (1999). The model shows that spot market illiquidity does not translate one to one to the futures market but, rather, interacts with price risk, liquidity...

This paper reconsiders the issue of share price reactions to dividend announcements. Previous papers rely almost exclusively on a naive dividend model in which the dividend change is used as a proxy for the dividend surprise. We use the difference between the actual dividend and the analyst...

Privatinvestoren sind eine wichtige Anlegergruppe auf den Finanzmärkten. In zahlreichen Arbeiten ist dokumentiert worden, daß private Anleger bestimmte Verhaltensweisen an den Tag legen, die die Annahme vollständiger Rationalität verletzen. Diese Verhaltensweisen wiederum können einen...

Prior research has established that the presence of designated market makers (DMMs) in an electronic open limit order book increases liquidity. We analyze whether the presence of additional DMMs results in a further improvement in liquidity. Using data from Deutsche Börse's Xetra system we find...

As of April 23, 2001, the limit order book for stocks listed on Euronext Paris became anonymous. We study the effect of this switch to anonymity on market liquidity and the informational content of the limit order book. Our empirical analysis is based on a model of limit order trading in which...

We analyze transactions by corporate insiders in Germany. We find that insider trades are associated with significant abnormal returns. Insider trades that occur prior to an earnings announcement have a larger impact on prices. This result provides a rationale for the UK regulation that...

We analyze data on stock index forecasts made by private investors. The implied returns calculated from these forecasts exhibit negative skewness and excess kurtosis. Past returns have a positive impact on the implied returns, consistent with investors expecting positive momentum. Females are...