We propose forecasting separately the three components of stock market returns: the dividend-price ratio, earnings growth, and price-earnings ratio growth --- the sum-of-the-parts (SOP) method. Our method exploits the different time-series persistence of the components and obtains out-of-sample...

Investors rebalance their portfolios as their views about expected returns and risk change. We use empirical measures of portfolio rebalancing to back out investors' views, specifically their views about the state of the economy. We show that aggregate portfolio rebalancing across equity sectors...