Many researchers are interested in making predictions for macroeconomic variables, but few of them studied the accuracy of their forecasts. The problem is essential, especially in crisis periods, because from many forecasts made for the same indicator only one or few are the most accurate. In...

In this article, we proposed the introduction in literature of a new source of uncertainty in modeling and forecasting: the indicators’ inadequacy. Even if it was observed, a specific nominalization in the context of forecasting procedure has not been done yet. The inadequacy of indicators as...

In this study, transformations of SPF inflation forecasts were made in order to get more accurate predictions. The filters application and Holt Winters technique were chosen as possible strategies of improving the predictions accuracy. The quarterly inflation rate forecasts (1975 Q1-2012 Q3) of...

The aim of this research is to determine the monthly natural rate of unemployment during the third quarter of 2013 in Romania. The Phillips curve approach is not valid for the Romanian economy, but Kalman filter is a suitable approach for computing the natural rate of unemployment. We make the...

The main objective of this research is to construct forecast intervals for inflation and unemployment rate in Romania. Two types of techniques were employed: bootstrap technique (tpercentile method) and historical error technique (root mean square error method- RMSE). The forecast intervals...