A quarterly econometric model of the U.S. dairy sector has been developed for use in short-to medium-term outlook and policy analyses. Simulations of the model indicate that it performs quite well both during the estimation period and during an eight-quarter interval beyond the estimation...

Intervention by governments in their foreign trade sectors fundamentally alters the character and composition of agricultural trade by making imports less responsive to international price changes than they otherwise would be. Intervention can also make world market prices change more frequently...

Annual models for U.S. farm prices for corn and wheat are developed based on market factors as well as government agricultural commodity programs. The pricing relationships utilize a stocks-to-use modeling framework to capture the effects of market supply and demand factors on price...

This report presents a simple methodology for calculating cross-price elasticities across countries, using the Frisch own-price elasticity. Cross-price elasticities are calculated for 9 major consumption categories from the 1996 International Comparison Program data across 114 countries. The...

This report documents the updated version of the Partial Equilibrium Agricultural Trade Simulation (PEATSim) model developed by USDA’s Economic Research Service. PEATSim is a global model, covering 31 commodities and 27 countries/regions. The model, consistent with economic theory, provides a...