The authors propose six questions relevant to the evaluation of all social system models, and apply them to the Barr-Gale model for forecasting the Consumer Price Index for Food. While analysts invest much effort in developing new economic models, relatively little attention is paid to...

A model is developed to forecast the food price component of the consumer price index published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The'model relates retail food prices to prices received by farmers and to wage rates in food marketing industries. The farm value and farm-retail spread of the...

The Interindustry flows required to support the output of the U S food and fiber system are decomposed Into backward and forward linkages Our purpose is to evaluate the relative Importance of farm versus food-and fiber-processing activities For the United States In 1977, backward linkages...

The choice among several concepts of food consumption depends upon what is to be studied, whether a farm problem, a marketing problem, or a problem at the level of consumer purchase or food intake. That choice will largely determine the selection among possible measures of food consumption. No...

Opinions differ among economists as to how effective statistical analyses using time series data can be in identifying factors affecting demand and in measuring their influences. Although this presentation may not materially modify these opinions, it should at least succeed in making even the...

Statisticians are constantly trying to make their methods more precise, not only because of their scientific interest but also to meet the ever-increasing load which modern society throws upon statistical measurement. A notable contribution has been made over the last dozen years by means of the...

Much has been written concerning the importance of risk and uncertainty on decision making. However, research results employing static theory are seldom modified by risk and uncertainty considerations to provide more realistic recommendations to farmers and others making decisions under...

The costs of obtaining a given level of accuracy in estimating yields of tree fruit might be lowered by the use of photographs or supplemental information on fruiting potential. A small-scale experiment of this sort is described for peaches and apples. A procedure for evaluating the relative...

The United States Department of Agriculture is cooperating in an interagency study to plan for the future development and control of the water resources of the Potomac River Basin.' One assignment undertaken by the Farm Economics Research Division, Agricultural Research Service, is that of...