This note looks at the time series evidence of the effect of NAFTA on Alabama tomato production using data up to the start of NAFTA to predict the trend in its absence. The time series is stationary with a constant mean and variance. An autoregressive model with one lag makes the forecast...

The effects of exchange rates and risk on major commodity exporters are examined in markets constructed from the top five importers and top three exporters from 1961 to 2000. Depreciation typically stimulates exports but the impacts vary considerably. Exchange risk has virtually no negative...