The effective design and implementation of interventions that reduce vulnerability and poverty require a solid understanding of underlying poverty dynamics and associated behavioral responses. Stochastic and dynamic benefit streams can make it difficult for the poor to learn the value of such...

This paper presents a model of the farm labor allocation decision based on risk and return characteristics of different activities. It is shown that off-farm employment can play an important role in the diversification of farm family income, implying that portfolio models of risk and return to...

Stochastic dominance analysis of five crop rotations using twenty-one years of experimental yield data returned results consistent with Pennsylvania cropping practices. The analysis incorporated yield risk, output price risk, and rotational yield effects. A rotation of two years corn and three...

The use of alternative probability density functions to specify risk in farm programming models is explored and compared to a traditional specification using historical data. A method is described that compares risk efficient crop mixes using stochastic dominance techniques to examine impacts of...

The random nature of soil loss under alternative land-use practices should be an important consideration of soil conservation planning and analysis under risk. Chance constrained programming models can provide information on the trade-offs among pre-determined tolerance levels of soil loss,...

Two double-limit tobit models are used to identify significant risk factors that most affect farm-raised catfish losses from weather-related events and from disease outbreaks. Results of the weather loss model indicate that the variables for operator education level, number of ponds, pond water...

Recent federal agricultural programs have accelerated the devolution of enterprise risk management responsibility from the state to individual producers. Using a biophysical simulation model, the risk management benefits of federal crop insurance and supplemental irrigation are derived and...

The forest owner’s decision regarding when to harvest, based on forest’s current worth, is analyzed using the real options approach for a representative Pacific Northwest Douglas-fir stand when the carbon price is stochastic and there is a fire risk. The problem is framed as a...

Actual Production History (APH) yields play a critical role in determining the coverage offered to producers by the Risk Management Agency’s yield-based crop insurance products. Using both county and individual insured unit data, we examine the impact of APH yield trends for Texas cotton...

Grain supply is the joint effect of both area and yield; however, research often targets either one or the other. The research presented here estimates the complete supply elasticity of grains using novel approaches to approximate producers’ price and weather expectations on both yield and...