Cogley, Timothy; Primiceri, Giorgio E.; Sargent, Thomas J. - In: American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics 2 (2010) 1, pp. 43-69
We estimate vector autoregressions with drifting coefficients and stochastic volatility to investigate whether US inflation persistence has changed. We focus on the inflation gap, defined as the difference between inflation and trend inflation, and we measure persistence in terms of short- to...