Term premia implied by maximum likelihood estimates of affine term structure models are misleading because of small-sample bias. We show that accounting for this bias alters the conclusions about the trend, cycle, and macroeconomic determinants of the term premia estimated in Wright (2011). His...

We adopt a statistical approach to identify the shocks that explain most of the fluctuations of the slope of the term structure of interest rates. We find that one shock can explain the majority of unpredictable movements in the slope. Impulse response functions lead us to interpret this shock...

Bauer, Rudebusch, and Wu (2014) advocate the use of bias-corrected estimates in their comment on Wright (2011). Econometric estimation of a macro-finance VAR provides quite imprecise estimates of future short-term interest rates. Nonetheless, comparison with survey responses indicates that the...

The riskless nature in real terms of inflation-linked bonds has led to the conclusion that inflation-linked bonds should constitute a substantial part of the optimal investment portfolio of long-term investors.This conclusion is reached in models where investors do not receive labor income...

In this paper we estimate and interpret the factors that jointly determine bond returns of different maturities in the US, Germany and Japan.We analyze both currency-hedged and unhedged bond returns.For currency-hedged bond returns, we find that five factors explain 96.5% of the variation of...

In this paper we empirically compare different term structure models when it comes to the pricing and hedging of caps and swaptions.We analyze the influence of the number of factors on the pricing and hedging results, and investigate which type of data -interest rate data or derivative price...

In this paper we empirically analyze the impact of transaction costs on the performance of affine interest rate models. We test the implied (no arbitrage) Euler restrictions, and we calculate the specification error bound of Hansen and Jagannathan to measure the extent to which a model is...