Out-of-sample forecasting of annual U.S. per capita food consumption, applying data from 1923 to 1992, is used as a basis for model selection among the absolute price Rotterdam model, a first-differenced linear approximate almost ideal demand system (FDLA/ALIDS) model, and a first-differenced...

Recent evidence suggests that cyclical cattle inventories are driven by exogenous shocks. This article examines a second possible contributing factor to the cattle cycle: a market timing effect that arises from individual attempts to maintain countercyclical inventories. The model uncovers an...

An out-of-sample prediction of Kansas farmers' responses to five surveyed questions involving risk is used to compare ordered multinomial logistic regression models with feedforward backpropagation neural network models. Although the logistic models often predict more accurately than the neural...