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Bivariate time series data often show strong relationships between the two components, while both individual variables can be approximated by random walks in the short run and are obviously bounded in the long run. Three model classes are considered for a time-series model selection problem:...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009725486
While interest in social determinants of individual behavior has led to a rich theoretical literature and many efforts to measure these influences, a mature "social econometrics" has yet to emerge. This chapter provides a critical overview of the identification of social interactions. We...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009732567
We use data generated by a macroeconomic DSGE model to study the relative benefits of forecast combinations based on forecast-encompassing tests relative to simple uniformly weighted forecast averages across rival models. Assumed rival models are four linear autoregressive specifications, one of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009733808
Flow data across regions can be modeled by spatial econometric models, see LeSage and Pace (2009). Recently, regional studies became interested in the aggregation and disaggregation of flow models, because trade data cannot be obtained at a disaggregated level but data are published on an...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009733811
This paper proposes a strategy to increase the efficiency of forecast combining methods. Given the availability of a wide range of forecasting models for the same variable of interest, our goal is to apply combining methods to a restricted set of models. To this aim, an algorithm procedure based...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009735352
We demonstrate how altruism can flourish in a population of nonaltruists. We assume that each individual plays a one-shot prisoner's dilemma game with his or her sibling and that the probability than an individual survives to reproduce is proportional to his or her payoff in this game. We model...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009699420
We study the benefits of forecast combinations based on forecast-encompassing tests relative to uniformly weighted forecast averages across rival models. For a realistic simulation design, we generate multivariate time-series samples of size 40 to 200 from a macroeconomic DSGE-VAR model....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009684032
This research examines capital income taxation for a loss averse investor under some acceptable in the literature reference levels relative to which are the changes in the level of wealth valued. Depending on the reference level, some results indicate that it could be possible for a capital...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009684798
We construct a tractable discrete-time overlapping generations model of a closed economy and use it to study government redistribution of accidental bequests and private annuities in general equilibrium. Individuals face longevity risk as there is a positive probability of passing away before...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009686203