The paper investigates the predictive power of a new survey implemented by the Federal Employment Agency (FEA) for forecasting German unemployment in the short run. Every month, the CEOs of the FEA’s regional agencies are asked about their expectations of future labor market developments. We...

We perform a comprehensive analysis of the stepping-stone effect of temporary agency employment on unemployed workers. Using the timing-of-events approach, we not only investigate whether agency employment is a bridge into regular em-ployment but also analyze its effect on post-unemployment...

Using high-quality administrative data, I analyze workers' opportunity costs of reallocation across occupations by measuring the additional time spent in unemployment before being hired in a new occupation. Furthermore, I inspect the wage changes after reallocation and find that workers who...